Middle East arrivals are down 40%, according to the WTM Global Travel Report 2026. The report, however, tries to paint a rosy picture. It sums up the state of travel in the Middle East as “A story of decline and rebound”, saying that despite this year’s “setback” (in the report’s words), 2026 will give way to a “robust and resilient long-term trajectory”.
The report forecasts that the Middle East conflict will die down, and that next year travel in the region will rebound dramatically, stating “the Middle East is set to rebound +43%”. It is not clear based on what metrics WTM’s report has concluded that the Middle East conflict will subside, leading to this forecast spike in travel. While the Democrats have won a convincing victory in the recent midterm elections, President Trump will remain in office until November 2028.
The report was produced by Tourism Economics for World Travel Market and published at last week’s show in London. Overall, international arrivals are still projected to hit a record 1.57 billion this year. Spending at destinations is predicted to rise 9% to US$7.8trn.
Middle East arrivals plummeting, but report predicts a rebound?
The Middle East has been hit hardest, with arrivals expected to fall 40% this year and arrivals to the Gulf states down 42%.
The report expects a strong recovery next year, with international arrivals up 8%, long-haul trips up 11% and Middle East arrivals rebounding 43%, although not to 2025 levels. It mentions that the industry now takes less time to recover from a major crisis, stating 10-12 months on average. What exactly will put an end to the ongoing crisis is not explored.
Other mentions in the report: business arrivals to grow faster than leisure
Other data points are also mentioned in the report beyond the Middle East situation. Business currently accounts for 12% of international visits. Tourism Economics forecasts that business arrivals will grow by 46% by 2032, compared with 37% for leisure. Overall, it expects international arrivals to reach 2.2 billion a year by 2032.
Events are also a big reason for leisure trips abroad. Of international travellers surveyed, 58% had travelled abroad for an event in the past two years, rising to 80% of those aged 18-34. Music events were the most popular reason (37%), followed by sport (24%) and cultural events (22%).
AI – trusted to plan, not to book
The report also found that 24% of travellers used AI to plan trips this year, up from 10% in 2024. Most trust it to compare prices and make recommendations, but only 36% would let it complete a booking for them. That figure rises to 54% of 18-34-year-olds and falls to 18% of those aged 55 and over.
